The recent discoveries of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have distorted essential oil projections under extreme U.S. pressure is, if real (and whistleblowers seldom come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning atomic explosion on future worldwide oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves have the prospective to throw governments' long-lasting planning into mayhem.

Whatever the reality, increasing long term international needs appear certain to outstrip production in the next years, especially offered the high and rising expenses of developing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a scenario, ingredients and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and rising prices drive this technology to the leading edge, among the richest potential production areas has been totally overlooked by financiers already - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the area is poised to end up being a significant player in the production of biofuels if adequate foreign investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is produced mostly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mostly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom due to the fact that of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising producer of natural gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and reasonably scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have actually mainly hindered their capability to money in on rising global energy demands already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain mostly reliant for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, but their heightened need to produce winter electricity has actually led to autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn seriously impacting the farming of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these 3 downstream countries do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era legacy of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mainly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, starting in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has actually ended up being a significant manufacturer of wheat. Based upon my conversations with Central Asian federal government authorities, provided the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have great appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower extent Astana for those durable investors going to bank on the future, especially as a plant native to the region has actually currently proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is bring in increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with numerous European and American companies already investigating how to produce it in business quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historic test flight utilizing camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the first Asian provider to explore flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month evaluation of camelina's functional performance capability and possible commercial viability.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to advise it. It has a high oil content low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another benefit of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce up to 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A heap (1000 kg) of camelina will consist of 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant's debris can be used for livestock silage. Camelina silage has a particularly appealing concentration of omega-3 fats that make it a particularly great livestock feed that is recently acquiring recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and contends well versus weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be a perfect low-input crop suitable for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a new crop on the scene: archaeological evidence shows it has been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of three millennia to produce both grease and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research study, revealed a wide variety of results of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil content varying between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been figured out to be in the 6-8 pound per acre variety, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per lb can create problems in germination to attain an optimal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina's capacity might enable Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has distorted the country's attempts at agrarian reform considering that attaining independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government determined that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing textile industry. The procedure was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also bought by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in specific was singled out to produce "white gold."

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had ended up being self-dependent in cotton